“They’ll hate you for it, but that’s the point of Masked Embiid, he can be the outcast. He can make the choice that no one else can make, the right choice.”

2022 NBA Playoffs: Second Round

One of the most exciting NBA first rounds in recent memory is in the books. Nets super team swept, Luka shakes off injury and the Warriors keep on getting stronger.

• Some quick housekeeping: In order to keep us honest here at the Slow Burn, we’ll do a tally of predictions and quick notes on where it went wrong/what we got right.
• 8–0 picking straight winners (this is why you read the Slow Burn). 4 series correct down to the game, other 4 missed by a game or two. Figured KD/Kyrie would get a couple games. Figured wrong. Yikes. Bojan missed a wide open three and the Jazz played out of tune all series. Trae Young? Fire up your agendas because that series was quick. Suns had me scared for a minute but then CP3 shut it down.

Eastern Conference:

(1) Miami vs. (4) Philadelphia

• Joel Embiid. How healthy is the Sixers’ MVP? A broken face should hopefully only keep him out a few games. However, this should be a tight series and a “few games” matters. If Joel was healthy, I’d go Sixers in 6. I’m bullish on this team’s potential but they need Joel to keep this season going.
• That’s not to say I’m underestimating Miami. The Heat are well coached, gritty and have a ton of veterans who have played in big games. If Joel is hobbled, this Miami team could be a nightmare for Philly. One flaw I find in Miami is the lack of a “go to guy” down the stretch. Could it be Jimmy? Sure. Tyler? Sure. Those guys have what it takes, they also have come up short.
• While Joel is the X factor for Philly. He needs help. This is Harden’s time to shake off some haters and prove he’s still got *some* of that juice left. When the Sixers get meaningful contributions from Maxey, Green and Tobias — they can beat anyone.
• Miami in 7. This hurts because depending on Joel’s health, I feel strongly that Philly can win this series.

(3) Milwaukee vs. (2) Boston

• Another series that will be defined by an injury! BOO. Turn off the injuries please. Khris Middleton is out and that’s a huge blow to the Bucks. However, this team has Championship experience and the best player on planet earth. Milwaukee needs Giannis to be at his best and he’s shown he’s capable of meeting the moment in the playoffs.
• This Celtics team is incredibly talented, fun and gritty on defense. If Tatum and Brown are firing, they’re nearly impossible to stop.
• How much will the Bucks get out of Jrue Holiday? He has to step up on the offensive end for the Bucks to have a chance.
• Impossibly difficult to choose. Bucks in 7. Boston winning wouldn’t be a surprise because this Celtics team has enough talent to get to the Finals. Milwaukee’s experience and depth gives them the edge.

Western Conference:

(1) Phoenix vs. (4) Dallas

• Let’s go! This should be a fun series and I expect both home crowds to bring it. Luka was made for the playoffs and he finally has a defense/supporting cast to help back him up. Jalen Brunson is driving up the price every time he touches the ball and is an X factor for Dallas this series. Mavs will need all of their role players to be locked in if they hope to beat Phoenix.
• The Suns have been the best team in the NBA all season long and survived a scare in the first round. Often that can wake teams up and get them dialed in. Booker’s health is a concern but he should be all good to go.
• Luka is the best player on the floor and capable of winning games all by himself. However, Chris Paul has this Suns team gunning for a Championship and they have enough to get past a pesky Mavs team.
• Suns in 6. Luka magic is always a wildcard.

(2) Memphis vs. (3) Golden

• Playtime is over. The big boys are here. This is like when JV scrimmages against Varsity and JV realizes everything they do, varsity does better. Trash talk, hit threes, be physical, push in transition… more trash talk. The Grizzlies are a young, brash and highly skilled team that is meeting the grown up version of itself. Golden State isn’t messing around and they now have two Steph Currys?
• Jordan Poole is a sensation and whether he’s starting or coming off the bench, he’s a matchup nightmare. Draymond Green is all about winning and he’s got his shooters back with him. This Warriors team is deep and experienced and I think they smack some sense into the Grizzlies.
• Memphis and Minnesota was a weird and at times dumb first round series. Bad rotations led to easy threes, led to bad rotations which led to easy shots. This will be a real test for a Grizzlies team that will likely be a Western Conference mainstay for years to come. Ja is a box office talent and this roster is well constructed to survive in the playoffs.
• Warriors in 6. If Golden State is really clicking this could be shorter.