“Ain’t no fun when the rabbit got the gun”

2022 NBA Playoffs: Conference Finals

He has arrived. Luka Magic took over the Conference Semifinals and gave the Slovenian Sensation a signature Game 7 win. Tatum shot down a hobbled Bucks team and Curry danced his way past the upstart Grizzlies.

• We went 2–2 in the Conference Semifinals thanks to a superb performance by the Dallas Mavericks and an embarrassing collapse by the Phoenix Suns. Always felt Bucks/Celtics was going 7 and thought it could go either way, I just sided with Milwaukee’s experience. Warriors and Heat were correct and ultimately ended their series without much fuss.

Eastern Conference:

(1) Miami vs. (2) Boston

• The Heat vs. Celtics rivalry is back! This is a rematch of the 2019–20 ECF which Miami won in six games. Couple years later, these teams are pretty similar with some important new faces. PJ Tucker won a title and then headed to South Beach, Kyle Lowry also brought his Championship experience to Pat Riley’s squad (Lowry’s health will be a big factor in this one). On the flip side, Grant Williams summoned the spirit of Ray Allen for his incredible Game 7 performance and the Celtics will need his shooting/defense to win this series. Robert Williams will be tasked with a lot down low and should be an interesting matchup with Bam.
• This Boston team feels special. Tatum and Brown are exceptionally talented and Boston’s role players have been great in their supporting roles. Tatum’s shot making is incredible but Miami’s defenders will make him work this series. I’d look for Brown to have a few big games that could swing this series. Klay plays a similar role for GSW. It’s so difficult to overcome a big Klay night because the opposing team puts so much energy into stopping Steph (Tatum) that when Klay goes off, you’re just screwed.
• Miami has another tough, gritty and battle tested team. Jimmy Butler leads the unit and has been fantastic in these playoffs. He makes big shots, plays hard and wants to win. However, this Celtics team’s shooting sliders are sometimes at 99 so the Heat need guys to score the basketball. Hero and Strus need to be consistent for Miami to keep up with the Celtics.
• Celtics in 7. Could be 6 if Boston’s offense simply outpaces the Heat. Also, Miami could absolutely muck this up and win in 7. Don’t like my copout? Too bad. I want 7 games.

Western Conference Finals:

(3) Golden State vs. (4) Dallas

• Luka Magic will be put to the test this series. GSW is too experienced and too savvy to let hookah smoking, beer drinking, basketball savant Luka Doncic beat them on his own. *Disclaimer: Other teams also have tried this and he laughed in their faces* That being said, I’m really interested to see how the Warriors defense tries to limit Luka’s ability. This comparison has absolutely 0 facts to back it up but I wonder if GSW’s experience with LeBron in those Finals helps them game plan around Luka. In the sense that Lebron also had the ball in his hands a ton and his teams relied so heavily on him to generate looks/the offense. Who knows, I may have made that up.
• The Warriors have the experience, talent and motivation to get them to the Finals. Golden State seems to be the better “team,” despite what the Mavericks have done this postseason. Jordan Poole’s ascension also presents problems for any opponent. Kidd’s ability to adjust after the first two games of the Phoenix series bodes well for this team and its ability to handle playoff hoops.
• As we’ve said all playoffs, the Mavericks need their role players to be exceptional to win this series. Dorian Finney-Smith, Brunson and Bullock all have to be locked in.. Dinwiddie needs to run the 2nd unit flawlessly and the bigs need to be ready for lobs at all times.
• Warriors in 6. Hoping for a long series but GSW seems destined for a Finals berth. Luka Magic is always a possibility and this Mavs team has shades of that 2011 squad.